Tuesday brings the 2020 election cycle to a close with twin U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia that will decide which party controls the chamber. In addition, there’s a runoff for a seat on Georgia’s five-member Public Service Commission. Note that due to the high volume of mail-in votes, we may not know the final outcome of these races tonight.
Resources: Results • County Benchmarks
We are now approaching 70-75% of the total vote counted, as we close in on three million votes tallied. At present, both Republican incumbents (Loeffler and Perdue) have moved into fractional leads. But the concern for them is that a significant amount of metro Atlanta has yet to be counted, and the GOP leads are very, very small. It is not a crazy estimate to assume that nearly 600,000 votes are still to come just from Cobb, Gwinnett, and DeKalb Counties.
So...this is where we stand. Right now, the two Republican incumbents lead. But there are at least 175,000 votes remaining in heavily Democratic DeKalb County (Atlanta), another 50,000-plus votes in blue Chatham County (Savannah), plus a handful of votes elsewhere in Atlanta metro (including probably 125,000-150,000 votes in Cobb County). So, those leads, which currently sit at 37,000 votes for Loeffler and 66,000 votes for Perdue, feel fairly tenuous for the red team.
The good news for the two Republican incumbents (well, technically, their terms expired) is that their leads continue to build: Loeffler is now up to a 43,600 vote lead, while Perdue now leads by 70,400 votes.
The bad news for the two Republican incumbents: pretty much everything that remains is blue turf. The three counties with the most outstanding votes (Chatham, Cobb, and DeKalb) only gave Sen. David Perdue 40%, 43%, and 17% of the vote in November.
The linchpin for Democratic aspirations, at this point, lies in DeKalb County. The early vote in that heavily Democratic county, it appears, has yet to be counted. That will number roughly 170,000 total votes. This is why margins matter. If the Democrats carry that early vote by 50%, that’s a net of about 85,000 votes. if they carry it by 70%, it is a net of 119,000 votes.
David Perdue’s lead right now in his battle with Jon Ossoff? 86,000 votes.
Source: Daily Kos
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