Thursday morning starts in essentially the same place as Wednesday—with Joe Biden on the brink of being President-Elect Joe Biden, and with everything trending his way. But this time, the nation should be within hours of a definitive result.
While counts in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania continued overnight, they moved forward with maddening slowness. Nevada threatened to produce new numbers, but decided to save them for Thursday because… drama? In both Georgia and Pennsylvania, incoming votes narrowed the gap between Biden and Donald Trump. And in both states, the announcement of Biden pulling ahead seemed a matter of “when’” not “if.”
Meanwhile Trump supporters gathered to shout “Stop the vote” or “Count the vote” depending on the state. And there was something that happened in the skies, which shows how close the nation is to a resolution on the ground.
The vote from Georgia came in a series of small batches as volunteers worked overnight. And with each batch, the gap grew smaller. In the early morning hours, the last batch counted brought the difference between Trump and Biden down to just 18,500 votes out of just under five million counted. As of 8 AM ET, there were reported to be approximately 51,000 still uncounted ballots in Georgia, mostly from areas around Atlanta and Savannah. To pull ahead, Biden needs to take these votes at a rate of 68%, but that’s actually lower than the rate of the last few batches to come down, which had been closed to 75% Biden. It’s dead certain that Georgia is heading for a finish that is going to be within 0.1% of the vote … but it’s not absolutely sure which way. In any case, the counting there should be actually finished, officials say, this morning.
In Pennsylvania, it’s not going to be close. Rather than reporting what’s left in fits and starts, Pennsylvania has apparently opted to make an announcement covering the whole remaining batch. At 10PM last night, the Pennsylvania Department of State office’s unofficial tally of outstanding mail ballots was 763,311. If that vote continues to go for Biden at the same rate as the mail-in vote that has been counted to far, it would represent a 381,000 vote net gain for Biden. Which would put Biden with a win somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 votes. That means there’s considerable room for these ballots to be more Trump-friendly and still give Biden a sizable victory. Of everything still out there, Pennsylvania probably looks the best to not only secure a win, but do so at a margin that’s unassailable.
Arizona also did some overnight counting and, as expected, the results there favored Trump. These are mostly mail-in ballots that were delivered directly to drop boxes on the final two days before the election, a period in which Republicans in the state were being warned to get in votes to counter a widely reported Democratic surge. Consider this the flip side of that exciting reporting about the high level of Democratic early voting. As a result, the largest batch that Arizona counted on Wednesday night was actually 18 points in Trump’s favor. On Thursday morning, Biden continues to hold a 68,500 vote edge in the state. There are still enough votes out there that, if they came in for Trump at the same margin as the last batch, could flip it into the red column. However, some analysts believe what remains is going to be less of a boost for Trump. In any case, like Georgia, Arizona looks to be close.
Nevada is essentially where it was on Wednesday— for that matter, where it was on Tuesday— with Biden holding a slim 8,000 vote edge and about a quarter of the vote remaining to be counted. MOst of the votes still outstanding appear to be from Clark County, which should be a good thing for Biden. In any case, Nevada has promised to finally let the world in on how people there voted some time today.
North Carolina is … still there. Just chillin’. Trump leads in the state by just under 78,000 votes. He’ll probably keep it, but it’s simply unclear what kind of votes are left.
If Biden holds Arizona, then a single other state, any state at all, would do. Biden could take Arizona and Nevada, and that would bring him to 270 exactly. Anything else is gravy. Of the five remaining states on the map, Biden just needs to get two. It looks very much as if he’ll get them.
How certain does Biden’s victory seem to be? On Wednesday evening, a singular notice appeared for anyone flying in the area of Wilmington, Delaware. A particular area, centered on a particular home, is now considered "National Defense Airspace."
Source: Daily Kos
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